Good News – Fossil Fuels Are Dying

But They Are Fighting Us and the Cause of Their Demise

The news on climate is bad, and it’s depressing. Our situation is getting worse and we’re in a world of hurt. We have the solutions to the climate challenge, yet it’s become a political issue, and rational solutions are being fought and stalled with the obscene profits of fossil fuel companies directing their PR agencies, think tanks, and the politicians they have in their pockets to spread disinformation.

Many of us believe this disinformation. I have a good friend who wrote me last week that basically there is nothing we can do about the climate crisis. I asked him to remember one of the tactics of fossil fueled fascism is to make us give up. I certainly feel like giving up. How can we possibly live through another 4 years of Trump energy and climate idiocy? He’s going to try to claw back the IRA, roll back mileage and EV mandates, export LNG, and drill-baby-drill. Then I remembered these three things, about why fossil fuels are on their way out.

Economics:
The primary driver of our neoliberal society, favored by free-market capitalism, deregulation, and reduction in government spending, is cost economics. The economics of fossil fuels just don’t pencil out anymore. Clean renewable energy is now the lowest cost energy available. For example, utility scale solar with storage ranges from $60 to $210/MWh compared with gas peaker plants at $110 to $228/MWh, or even cheaper onshore wind with storage from $45 to $133/MWh. (Check out the Lazard Levelized Cost of Energy charts here.)

The fossil fuel industry and their energy deceivers have continued to spew disinformation about wind and solar. They are right about one thing. Wind energy does cause cancer… for fossil fuels. Fossil fuels have developed a form of economic cancer similar to the case of whale oil in the 1800’s. They are being eaten alive by less expensive forms of energy. The screaming and noise we hear from them is their death rattle. It’s going to be a protracted battle, but in the end, they are going to lose.

Part of the disinformation we hear is that we can’t possibly transition fast enough. Look at all the energy we’d have to replace? Right? No, wrong.

Efficiency:
We don’t have to do a 1 for 1 replacement of every fossil fuel energy plant. Why? Because most of the energy produced from fossil fuels is lost as heat. It turns out fossil fuels are really inefficient. Let me give you an example. The efficiency of an internal combustion car is about 20%. The rest is wasted as heat. The efficiency of an Electric Vehicle is about 60%. 3 times that of a gas car! It turns out that it’s much more efficient to capture an electron directly from the sun with a solar panel than: explore for oil, drill for oil, pump it, transport it through a pipeline, refine it by heating and cracking it, then transporting it again, and finally burning it inefficiently in your gas car. Take a look at this simple explanation.[i]

(And guess what? EV prices are coming down. Lithium battery prices declined 20% this year.[ii] Some are predicting even further price declines.[iii])

But wait, we can’t build out our infrastructure fast enough? We need more transmission and a robust grid. True. But let’s look at China. They’ve build 40,000 miles of high voltage transmission lines in the last five years. In the US, we’ve built 1,620 miles[iv]. It is possible, we’re just not doing it. Yet.

Momentum:
Greater economics of cost, and greater efficiency both lead to a third factor. Momentum. Wind and solar are the fastest growing energy sources in history.[v] Last year 77% of new energy build-out in the US was wind, solar, and battery.[vi] This number is 85% globally. Future projections have this trend continuing. Like the Wizard of Oz, Fossil Fuel execs don’t want us to look behind the curtain. Yet only one conclusion is possible, Dorothy. We are in Kansas, the sun and wind are strong, and the transition to clean renewable energy is inevitable.

The question is will it be in time? It can be. California recently ran 100% their grid off renewables for at least part of the day for 100 days. It will take time but our vision and effort will determine the outcome. But a dying industry always tries to prolong its life. It didn’t work for whale oil. It didn’t work for Blockbuster. It won’t work for oil. If the US wants to be competitive on the world stage, it will need low cost energy. How do we compete with China when they are powering their solar panel factories with solar? Even the fossil fuel Luddites are struggling with this question.

Finally, these three trends don’t even include the moral crime that fossil fuels are polluting our air and robbing the health and future of our families and children. Facts, reasons, and charts or arguments like this don’t persuade people to change their minds or even disbelieve the misinformation they’ve been fed. We can only attract people with better stories. (Here’s a few good stories regarding wind energy.) But at least don’t buy into their bullshit. Don’t let the bastards get you down.

Thanks for all you do.

We are all connected. Savor the Earth!’™

– Hobie,
L. Hobart Stocking
SkyWaterEarth.com
hobart@skywaterearth.com
Substack: SkyWaterEarth – Hobie Stocking

(Note: references are cited for the nerds reading who want more information, and key charts provided below for those who want visuals. Charts are the copyrighted property of those cited. Header image is AI generated.)

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[i] https://thinc.blog/2024/12/14/more-light-than-heat-from-clean-energy/

[ii] https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/batteries/chart-lithium-ion-battery-prices-fall-yet-again?amp%3Butm_medium=email&amp%3Butm_campaign=canary&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-97Lg4c0Ggd1nVk55zZP4JLrmBJBHPDrvUwBPiiXTwn7dvJpCsGM2CqwHvYLc7TvpgIW6BY0ZLpbAI_MDv19ChxGImoPA&_hsmi=338378665&utm_source=newsletter

[iii]